ApplyBoard summarises the logic of its analysis like this:

• “The number of new study permit applications processed by the Canadian government dropped by 54% in Q2 2024 versus Q2 2023. Year over year, we project the number of applications processed to drop by 39% in 2024.
• If current trends hold, around 230,000 new study permits will be processed in the second half of 2024.
• If the study permit processing projection above is accurate, and the study permit approval rate stays at 51%, we estimate that just over 231,000 new study permits will be approved in 2024. This projected approval count is roughly 47% lower than the 436,600 new study permits which were approved in 2023.”

Those mid-year totals demonstrate that student demand is shifting away from Canada under the new policy settings due to confusion arising from the new rules this year. ApplyBoard found that even Canadian post-secondary programmes that are not included in the cap are experiencing lower demand.

source:https://monitor.icef.com/2024/09/canada-mid-year-data-indicates-that-international-student-commencements-could-drop-by-nearly-50-for-2024/